Ukungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle e-China kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka bekungaphaya kokulindelwe kwimakethi, ngakumbi ukusukela ngo-1995, ngokweenkcukacha ezikhutshwe nguLawulo Jikelele lweeMpahla nge-Matshi 7. Ukongeza, urhwebo lwase China kunye namaqabane aphambili kurhwebo lonyuke kakhulu, ebonisa ukuba indibaniselwano yase China kunye noqoqosho lwehlabathi iye yanzulu ngakumbi. I-Reuters ixele ukuba i-China ilawule ngempumelelo ubhubhane, kwaye ii-odolo zezinto ezichasene nobhubhane phesheya ziyaqhubeka. Ukuphunyezwa kwamanyathelo okwahlula amakhaya kumazwe amaninzi kukhokelele ekuqhambukeni kwemfuno yempahla yabathengi basekhaya kunye ne-elektroniki, ekhokelele ekuvulweni korhwebo lwangaphandle lwase China ngo-2021. inzima kwaye inzima, kwaye urhwebo lwangaphandle lwase China lusendleleni ende.

Izinga lokukhula okukhawulezayo kokuthumela ngaphandle ukusukela ngo-1995

Ngokwedatha yoLawulo Jikelele lwamasiko, ixabiso lilonke lempahla yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela impahla e-China kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka ziyi-5.44 yezigidi zeerandi, ukonyuka kwama-32.2% kwangelo xesha linye kulo nyaka uphelileyo. Phakathi kwabo, ukuthumela ngaphandle kwakungu-3.06 trillion yuan, ukuya kuma-50.1%; Ukungenisa ngaphakathi bekuyi-yuan eyi-2.38 yeetriliyoni, inyuke nge-14.5%. Ixabiso lifakwe kwiidola zaseMelika, kwaye ixabiso lokungenisa kunye nokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe laseChina lenyuke ngama-41.2% kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo. Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunyuke ngama-60.6%, ukungenisa elizweni kunyuke nge-22.2%, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunyuswe nge-154% ngoFebruwari. I-AFP igxininise kwingxelo yayo ukuba lelona nqanaba lokukhula ngokukhawuleza kwamava eTshayina okuthumela ngaphandle ukusukela ngo-1995.

I-ASEAN, i-EU, i-United States ne-Japan ngamaqabane amane aphambili kurhwebo e-China ukusukela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuFebruwari, ngamanqanaba okukhula kwezorhwebo angama-32.9%, 39.8%, 69.6% kunye nama-27.4% kwi-RMB ngokwahlukeneyo. Ngokwe-General Administration yamasiko, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe e-China e-United States kwaba yi-525.39 yezigidigidi ze-yuan, inyuke nge-75.1 yepesenti kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo, ngelixa intsalela yorhwebo kunye ne-United States yayiyi-33.44 yezigidigidi ze-yuan, ukonyuka kwe-88.2 yeepesenti. Kwangelo xesha linye kulo nyaka uphelileyo, ukungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle phakathi kwe China ne-United States kwehle nge-19.6 pesenti.

Ngokubanzi, ukungeniswa kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe China kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka akuphelelanga nje kwixesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, kodwa kukonyuke malunga ne-20% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kwi-2018 kunye ne-2019 ngaphambi kokuqhambuka. U-Huojianguo, usekela-mongameli we-World Trade Organisation Association of China, uxelele amaxesha ehlabathi nge-Matshi 7 ukuba ukungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle e-China kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zonyaka ophelileyo ngenxa yefuthe lobhubhane. Ngokusekwe kwisiseko esisezantsi ngokwentelekiso, idatha yokungenisa nokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe kulo nyaka kufuneka ibe nokusebenza kakuhle, kodwa idatha ekhutshwe nguLawulo Jikelele lwamasiko isagqithisile kulindelo.

Ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe e-China kwenyuka kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka, kubonisa imfuno eqinileyo yehlabathi yezinto ezenziweyo, kwaye kwaxhamla ekwehleni kwesiseko ngenxa yokudodobala kwezoqoqosho kwakwelo xesha linye kunyaka ophelileyo, utshilo uBloomberg. Ulawulo Jikelele lweeRhafu zeMpahla lukholelwa ukuba ukurhweba nokungenisa urhwebo lwangaphandle e-China kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala kucacile, "akubuthathaka ngexesha langaphandle", nokuqhubeka nokukhawuleza ngokukhawuleza ukusukela ngeyeSilimela kunyaka ophelileyo. Phakathi kwabo, ukwanda kwemfuno yamanye amazwe ebangelwe kukufunyanwa kwemveliso kunye nokusetyenziswa koqoqosho lwaseYurophu naseMelika kukhokelele ekukhuleni kokuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe lase China.

Ukonyuka okubonakalayo kokungeniswa kwezinto ezingafunekiyo eziphambili

Uqoqosho lwasekhaya luye lwalunga kwakhona, kwaye i-PMI yemizi-mveliso isemgceni wokuchuma kwaye iyabuna iinyanga ezili-12. Ishishini linethemba ngakumbi malunga nolindelo lwexesha elizayo, olukhuthaza ukungeniswa kwesekethe ehlanganisiweyo, iimveliso zezixhobo zamandla ezinje ngesekethe ehlanganisiweyo, isinyithi kunye neoyile ekrwada. Nangona kunjalo, ukuhla okuguqukayo kwamaxabiso ezinto zorhwebo phakathi kweendidi ezahlukeneyo kukwabangela utshintsho olukhulu kwixabiso levolumu yempahla yorhwebo xa iChina ingenisa elizweni.

Ngokwedatha yoLawulo Jikelele lwamasiko, kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka, i-China ingenise i-82 yezigidi zeetoni zentsimbi, ukwanda nge-2.8%, ixabiso eliphakathi lokungenisa ngaphakathi kwi-yuan eyi-942.1, inyuke nge-46.7%; i-oyile ekrwada engeniswe ngaphandle ifikelele kwizigidi ezingama-89.568 zeetoni, ukwanda nge-4.1%, kwaye ixabiso eliphakathi lokungenisa yayiyi-2470.5 yuan ngetoni nganye, yehla nge-27.5%, isiphumo sokwehla ngama-24.6% kwisixa-mali sokungenisa sisonke.

Uxinzelelo lwe-chip yonikezelo lwehlabathi luyichaphazele neChina. Ngokwe-General Administration yamasiko, i-China ingenise i-96.4 yezigidigidi zemijikelezo ehlanganisiweyo kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka, enexabiso elipheleleyo le-376.16 yezigidigidi ze-yuan, inyuke nge-36% kunye ne-25.9% yobungakanani kunye nesixa xa kuthelekiswa okufanayo ixesha kunyaka ophelileyo.

Ngokubhekisele kumazwe angaphandle, ngenxa yokuba ubhubhane wehlabathi awukaqhambuki kwangelo xesha linye kulo nyaka uphelileyo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwizixhobo zonyango nezixhobo e-China kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka ibiyi-18.29 yezigidi zeerandi, ukonyuka okubonakalayo I-63.8% xa ithelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo. Ukongeza, ngenxa yokuba i-China ikhokele kulawulo olusebenzayo lwe-COVID-19, ukubuyiswa kunye nokuveliswa kwefowuni ephathekayo kwakulungile, kwaye ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweefowuni eziphathwayo, izixhobo zasendlini kunye neemoto kunyuke kakhulu. Phakathi kwabo, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweefowuni eziphathwayo kunyuke nge-50%, kwaye ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwezixhobo zasekhaya kunye neemoto kufikelele kwi-80% kunye ne-90% ngokwahlukeneyo.

I-Huojianguo ihlalutye ukuya kumaxesha ehlabathi ukuba uqoqosho lwase China luqhubekile ukuphucula, ukuzithemba kwintengiso kubuyisiwe kunye nemveliso yeshishini yayintle, ke ukuthengwa kwezinto ezingafunekiyo kuye kwanda kakhulu. Ukongeza, ngenxa yokuba imeko yobhubhane phesheya isasazeka kwaye amandla engenakubuyiselwa, i-China iyaqhubeka nokudlala indima kwisiseko semveliso sehlabathi, inikezela ngenkxaso eyomeleleyo yokufumana kwakhona ubhubhane wehlabathi.

Imeko yangaphandle isenxunguphele

Ulawulo Jikelele lweSiko lase China likholelwa ukuba urhwebo lwangaphandle lwase China luvule iingcango zalo kwezi nyanga zimbini zidlulileyo, nelivule isiqalo esihle sonyaka wonke. Olu phando lubonisa ukuba iiodolo zokuthumela ngaphandle kwamashishini aseTshayina ziye zanda kule minyaka idlulileyo, zibonisa ulindelo oluqinisekileyo kwimeko yokuthumela kwelinye ilizwe kwiinyanga ezi-2-3 ezizayo. I-Bloomberg ikholelwa ekubeni ukuthengisa okuphuma phambili e-China kuye kwanceda ukuxhasa ukubuyela kwe-China kwindyikitya yokufa e-V nokwenza i-China kuphela kwelizwe elikhulayo kuqoqosho olukhulu lwehlabathi ngo-2020.

Ngomhla wesihlanu kweyoKwindla, ingxelo yomsebenzi kaRhulumente yatsho ukuba ithagethi yohlumo loqoqosho lwase China ngowama-2021 yabekwa ngaphezulu kwepesenti ezi-6. U-Huojianguo uthe ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe e-China kunyuke kakhulu kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo ngenxa yokuba ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe kufakiwe kwi-GDP, kusisiseko esomeleleyo sokufezekisa injongo yonyaka opheleleyo.

Inoveli coronavirus pneumonia iyasasazeka kwihlabathi jikelele, kwaye izinto ezingazinzanga nezingaqinisekanga kwimeko yamanye amazwe ziyanda. Imeko yoqoqosho lwehlabathi inzima kwaye inzima. Urhwebo lwangaphandle lwase China lusakhula ngokuthe chu. U-Huweijun, umlawuli wezoqoqosho e-China e-Macquarie, iziko lezemali, uqikelela ukuba ukukhula kwe-China kumazwe angaphandle kuza kuthoba kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo zalo nyaka njengoko amazwe ahambele phambili eqala kwakhona kwimveliso yezorhwebo.

"Izinto ezichaphazela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe e-China inokuba emva kokuba imeko yobhubhane ilawulwe ngokukuko, amandla ehlabathi abuyiselwa kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe e-China kungancipha." Uhlalutyo lukaHuojianguo luthi njengelona lizwe likhulu lemveliso kwilizwe iminyaka eli-11 zilandelelana, umjikelo opheleleyo wezorhwebo waseTshayina kunye nokhuphiswano olukhulu kwimveliso aluyi kwenza ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe laseTshayina kuguquke kakhulu ngo-2021.